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SW-Version alpha 0.41
Darstellung: System
Sprache: DE

Threat Landscape for Switzerland

2. Threat Landscape for Switzerland

2.1 FIS Situation Report 2025

The Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) assesses the security situation as more threatening than ever before. FIS Director Christian Dussey: "Our threat radar shows 15 hotspots simultaneously -- we have never experienced such a concentration of threats" (FIS: Switzerland's Security 2025).

Key findings:

  • Over 80 Russian intelligence operatives active in Switzerland
  • 14,472 reports received from foreign partner services
  • 55 authorized counter-terrorism measures in 2024 (compared to zero in 2023)
  • Over 100 Swiss high-precision machines reached Russia despite sanctions

The Security Policy Strategy 2026 explicitly warns: from 2028, a "vulnerability window" could emerge in which Europe is not yet defense-capable while Russia ramps up its war economy (DDPS: Security Policy Strategy; SEPOS).

2.2 Vulnerability to Stand-Off Weapons

Weapon System Type Speed Range
Iskander-M Short-range ballistic missile Mach 6-7 500 km
Kh-47M2 Kinzhal Hypersonic air-to-ground missile Mach 10 2,000 km
3M22 Zircon Hypersonic cruise missile Mach 8-9 1,000 km
Shahed-136 Loitering munition approx. 180 km/h 2,500 km

SWP analyzes that conventional cruise missiles can fly through alpine valleys to evade detection (terrain masking) (SWP, 2023). Armasuisse is examining the threat posed by hypersonic glide vehicles (Armasuisse: Hypersonic). IFSH investigates arms control for hypersonic weapons (IFSH).

The Alpine Radar Shadow: A hypersonic glide vehicle at Mach 10 covers the distance from the Austrian border to Bern (approximately 150 km) in under 45 seconds. A conventional cruise missile reaches Zurich from the German border in less than 10 minutes.

2.3 Hybrid Threats

Russia is already waging a hybrid war against Europe: sabotage of critical infrastructure, maritime operations against undersea cables, and targeted disruption of NATO mobility (CSIS: Shadow War). Switzerland is particularly exposed as a financial center, commodity trading hub, and seat of international organizations (ECFR: Switzerland). Pro-Russian hacktivists are attacking critical infrastructure (CISA, 2025; ECFR: Energy Security).

NDU Press analyzes Swiss neutrality after the Russian invasion: in a crisis, Switzerland would face the choice between shooting down transiting missiles (risk of becoming a belligerent) and passivity (loss of sovereignty) (NDU Press, 2023).