"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." -- Arthur C. Clarke [1]
We are approaching a point at which artificial intelligence does things we can no longer understand. Large language models consist of hundreds of billions of parameters. Nobody -- no engineer, no researcher -- can explain why such a model gives a particular answer to a particular question. Researchers call these emergent capabilities: abilities that suddenly appear at a certain model size without having been programmed [2].
Clarke's third law was originally directed at the past -- a smartphone would have seemed like magic to a Stone Age human. But the real point lies in the present: The Stone Age human is now us.
GPS replaced the sense of direction. The calculator replaced mental arithmetic. Google replaced memory. And generative AI is replacing independent thought. Every convenience costs a capability. Anyone who has driven with sat-nav for ten years can no longer find their way home without it. Anyone who delegates every question to an AI forgets how to think their own thoughts through to the end.
Forecast: The real danger of superintelligence is not the Terminator moment. It is the collective forgetting -- a humanity that has stopped understanding the world around it because AI thinks faster and more comprehensively than any human.
Scenario: Humanity makes the right decisions. AI fills the demographic gap, takes over routine work for which there are no longer enough young people. An AI value creation levy replaces the lost wage-based contributions. A basic income secures the material foundation.
What then happens has no precedent in human history: people become free -- not free from work in the sense of idleness, but free for activities that go beyond mere survival. The Renaissance arose in a society where a small elite was liberated from labour by others. In the best case, this liberation is democratised [3].
Switzerland in this scenario plays to its strengths: ETH and EPFL become global beacons of AI research. Direct democracy is not replaced by algorithms but strengthened -- because citizens can access AI-powered impact assessments before every vote.
Scenario: Humanity makes no decisions. Not the wrong ones -- none at all. It lets things happen. Gradually. Comfortably. Applauding. AI takes over one activity after another. Each time, it is celebrated as progress. The transition from "AI helps you" to "AI decides for you" is seamless.
The Scottish writer Iain Banks anticipated this future in his Culture novel series: a civilisation governed by superintelligent AI beings -- the Minds. Humans live in abundance and freedom. The disturbing question Banks raises: What is the difference between a paradise where you may do anything and a prison where you need do nothing? [4]
For Switzerland, this would be particularly bitter. A country that builds its identity on direct democracy loses its soul when power lies with algorithms over which no electorate can vote.
Both scenarios begin with the same technology, in the same world, with the same people. The difference lies not in the AI. It lies in us.
In the best case, people remain curious, uncomfortable, defiant. They preserve the ability to think, even when the machine thinks faster. In the worst case, they do nothing. And that is precisely the problem.
The following eight scenarios sketch concrete developments through to 2050 -- in work, medicine, energy, Artificial General Intelligence, demography, monetary policy, society and space technology. Each scenario is based on verifiable data and names both opportunities and risks.
The cage door is open. For now.
[1] Clarke, Arthur C.: Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible. Harper & Row, 1962.
[2] Wei, Jason et al.: Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models. Transactions on Machine Learning Research, 2022. arXiv:2206.07682.
[3] Harari, Yuval Noah: Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. Harvill Secker, 2016.
[4] Banks, Iain M.: The Player of Games. Macmillan, 1988. (First Culture novel with a detailed portrayal of the Minds society.)