¶ Funtaunas e metodica
¶ Funtaunas admessas
Quest wiki acceptescha exclusivamain funtaunas accessiblas publicamain e controllablas. La suandanta ierarchia vala:
| Prioritad | Tip da funtauna | Exempels |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Statisticas uffizialas | UST, BNS, SECO, Chanzlia federala |
| 2 | Organisaziuns internaziunalas | FMI, OCDE, AIE, OMS, ONU |
| 3 | Publicaziuns scientificas | Peer-reviewed journals, papers da conferenzas |
| 4 | Retschertga da scolas superiuras | ETH, EPFL, KOF, Avenir Suisse |
| 5 | Texts da lescha | CF, revLPD, EU AI Act, RGPD |
| 6 | Medias da qualitad | NZZ, SRF, Le Temps, Financial Times |
| 7 | Cudeschs spezialisads | Peer-reviewed u tar renumadas edituras |
Betg admess: Wikipedia sco funtauna primara, posts da social media, blogs senza fundament scientific, funtaunas anonimas.
¶ Reglas da citaziun
Referenzas a funtaunas vegnan indicadas sco notas da pe [N] en il text. A la fin da la pagina suonda la glista bibliografica cumpletta cun autur, titel, editura/journal, onn e eventualmain URL.
¶ Metodica da las calculaziuns da model
La calculaziun fiscala da model en quest wiki sa basa sin las suandantas supposiziuns:
| Parameter | Valur | Funtauna |
|---|---|---|
| Occupads en Svizra (2024) | 5,5 mio. | UST |
| Salari median brut | 84'000 CHF/onn | UST Retschertga da la structura dals salaris |
| Contribuziuns dependentas dal salari (AVS+LPP+taglia) | ca. 48% | UFAS, AFC |
| Finanziaziun statala dependenta dal salari total | 220 mia. CHF/onn | Calculaziun |
| Rata d'automaziun fin il 2032 | 12% (netto) | McKinsey, KOF ETH, conservativ |
| Rata d'automaziun fin il 2040 | 32% (netto) | McKinsey, stima atgna |
| Rata d'automaziun fin il 2050 | 42% (netto) | McKinsey, stima atgna |
| Novas plazzas (branscha d'IA, compensaziun) | 10% da las perditas | Stima |
| Rincariment (a lunga vista) | 1,5% p.a. | Corrider da finamira da la BNS |
| Creschida reala dals salaris | 0,5% p.a. | Media istorica |
| Creschida da la populaziun fin il 2050 | 9,0 → 10,35 mio. | UST scenari da referenza A-00-2025 |
| Proporziun da persunas ablas da lavurar (20--64) | 65% → 55% | UST |
¶ Glista bibliografica cumpletta
¶ Istorgia svizra da l'IA
- ETH Turitg, Departament d'informatica: Peidras miliaras da la retschertga. inf.ethz.ch
- Wirth, Niklaus: Algorithms + Data Structures = Programs. Prentice-Hall, 1976.
- ETH AI Center, Turitg-Oerlikon: avert october 2020. ai.ethz.ch
- IDSIA (Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull'Intelligenza Artificiale): fundà 1988 a Lugano. idsia.ch
- Schmidhuber, Jürgen / Hochreiter, Sepp: Long Short-Term Memory. Neural Computation 9(8), 1997.
¶ Temp da pioneers e fundaments
- McCulloch, Warren / Pitts, Walter: A Logical Calculus of the Ideas Immanent in Nervous Activity. Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics, 1943.
- Turing, Alan: Computing Machinery and Intelligence. Mind, Vol. 59, 1950.
- Vaswani, Ashish et al.: Attention Is All You Need (architectura Transformer). NeurIPS, 2017.
¶ Gronds models da lingua
- OpenAI: GPT-4 Technical Report. arxiv.org, mars 2023.
- Google DeepMind: Gemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models. december 2023.
- Anthropic: Claude 3 Technical Report. anthropic.com, mars 2024.
¶ Regulaziun e politica
- EU AI Act (Ordinaziun UE 2024/1689): En vigur dapi ils 1. d'avust 2024.
- Lescha svizra da protecziun da datas (revLPD): En vigur dapi ils 1. da settember 2023.
- Iniziativa populara svizra "Per in entrada da basa incundiziunà": Refusada ils 5 da zercladur 2016, 76,9% Na.
¶ Economia e martgà da lavur
- McKinsey Global Institute: A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity. 2017.
- Frey, Carl Benedikt / Osborne, Michael (Oxford Martin School): The Future of Employment. 2013.
- KOF ETH Turitg: Effects da l'IA generativa sin il martgà da lavur, 2023.
¶ Demografia
- UST: Scenaris demografics 2023--2055, scenari da referenza A-00-2025.
- UN World Population Prospects 2024.
- Svizra: Rata da fertilitad 1,39 (2023). UST.
¶ Cudeschs spezialisads
- Bostrom, Nick: Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press, 2014.
- Russell, Stuart: Human Compatible. Viking, 2019.
- Zuboff, Shoshana: The Age of Surveillance Capitalism. PublicAffairs, 2019.
- Harari, Yuval Noah: Homo Deus. Harvill Secker, 2016.
- Rosling, Hans: Factfulness. Flatiron Books, 2018.
- Friedman, Milton: Capitalism and Freedom. University of Chicago Press, 1962.
¶ Consum d'energia
- Agentura internaziunala d'energia (AIE): Energy and AI. iea.org, 2025.
- AIE: Consum global d'electricitad da centers da datas: 415 TWh (2024), prognosa 945 TWh (2030).
¶ Armas autonomas
- CICR: Autonomous Weapon Systems, 2014.
- Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), Group of Governmental Experts on LAWS. unog.ch
Stadi: mars 2026