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International Context

Summary: The European security architecture has fundamentally changed since 2022. Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the EU is massively expanding its Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), and the USA under President Trump demand more European self-reliance. Switzerland is the only European state that is neither a NATO nor an EU member and simultaneously remains neutral.

1. NATO Enlargement

Finland (April 2023)

On 4 April 2023, Finland joined NATO as its 31st member. Finland had pursued a policy of military non-alignment since the Second World War. The Russian attack on Ukraine led to a rapid shift in opinion: NATO support rose from 25% to over 75% within a few weeks [1].

Sweden (March 2024)

On 7 March 2024, Sweden joined NATO as its 32nd member. Sweden too thus abandoned a tradition of non-alignment spanning over 200 years [1].

Significance for Switzerland

NATO enlargement has drastically reduced the number of neutral/non-aligned states in Europe and increased pressure on the remaining neutral states.

2. Remaining Neutral or Non-aligned States in Europe

State Status EU member NATO member Particularity
Austria Constitutionally neutral Yes No Participates in EU CSDP
Ireland Militarily non-aligned Yes No "Triple Lock" for military deployments
Malta Constitutionally neutral Yes No Smallest EU state
Switzerland Permanently neutral No No Only state neither EU nor NATO

Switzerland occupies a unique position: it is the only European state that is simultaneously neutral AND belongs to neither the EU nor NATO [2].

3. EU CSDP Expansion

The EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) has been massively expanded since 2022 [3]:

  • March 2025: EU Commission presented strategy paper on defence capability
  • 6 March 2025: Extraordinary European Council -- agreement on massive investments ("ReArm Europe")
  • October 2025: 21 active CSDP missions and operations with approx. 4,000 personnel
  • Ongoing: New EU defence initiatives (Defence Omnibus, accelerated approval procedures)

For Switzerland as a non-EU member, CSDP is not directly relevant, but the EU-wide rearmament trend indirectly generates pressure on Swiss defence policy [3][4].

4. Geopolitical Fragmentation

The neutrality debate takes place against the backdrop of an increasingly fragmented world order:

  • USA under President Trump: Demand for significantly more European self-reliance in defence
  • Russia-Ukraine War: Longest land war in Europe since 1945
  • China-Taiwan tensions: Potential escalation in the Indo-Pacific
  • Multipolar world order: Declining rules-based order, more power politics

5. Pressure on Switzerland

Switzerland faces threefold pressure [5]:

  1. From NATO: Expectation of stronger cooperation whilst remaining a non-member
  2. From the EU: Coherence expectation in sanctions policy (relevant for Bilateral III)
  3. From the USA: Criticism of "free-riding" on European security

The ETH study "Security 2025" shows that over 80% of the Swiss population perceive high value congruence with Northern, Western and Central Europe -- but only a minority supports NATO membership (32%) [6].

6. Significance for the Neutrality Initiative

The initiative seeks to set clear boundaries in this context: constitutional prohibition of military alliances and economic sanctions. Supporters see this as protection against creeping rapprochement; opponents see it as dangerous self-isolation.

For a detailed analysis, see:

References

[1] bpb.de (2023). NATO Northern Enlargement -- Finland's Accession.
Federal Agency for Civic Education. [Open Access]

[2] NZZ (2025). Sense of security declining, desire for NATO rapprochement rising.
Neue Zuercher Zeitung. [Open Access]

[3] European Parliament (2026). CSDP Factsheet.
European Parliament. [Open Access]

[4] BMEIA Austria (2024). Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).
Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs. [Open Access]

[5] swissinfo.ch (2022). How Russia pushes neutral states closer to NATO.
SWI swissinfo.ch. [Open Access]

[6] DDPS (2025). Security Study 2025.
Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport. [Open Access]

Last updated: March 2026